A recent example observed in my neighborhood highlights a growing problem in the economic and labor spheres. A recently renovated commercial establishment, specifically a vermouth bar, has been closed for more than four months despite the significant investment made by its owners. The causes of this inactivity may be varied, but according to rumors among neighbors, the main reason seems to be the difficulty in finding staff. This phenomenon, far from being an isolated case, is perceived as an increasingly common trend in the current socioeconomic context, prompting me to reflect on this issue.
In Europe, the current demographic situation is characterized by a persistently low fertility rate, a trend that has continued for decades. None of the continent's countries reach the threshold of 2.1 children per woman, considered necessary to ensure generational replacement. This issue, however, goes beyond European borders and is also evident in many other developed societies and emerging economies. Even in some less developed regions, a progressive decline in birth rates is observed.
The causes of declining fertility are diverse and multifaceted. Among the highlighted factors are changes in social and economic patterns. The increase in female participation in the labor market, the delay in motherhood, and difficulties in accessing affordable housing are determining factors. Likewise, economic insecurity and the rising costs associated with raising children significantly contribute to this trend. Simultaneously, the greater availability of contraceptive methods and a shift in individual priorities have consolidated this decline in birth rates.
The impact of declining fertility is evident on a global scale. Without the constant increase in life expectancy, which partially offsets the low birth rates, the world population would have already started to decline years ago. In some countries, such as China, this phenomenon is already a reality. Population reduction poses significant challenges, especially for economies based on continuous and unlimited growth. A decrease in the number of young people negatively affects the workforce and increases pressure on pension and healthcare systems, as a growing proportion of the population will consist of elderly people.
The global economy, as currently structured, relies on constant growth in production and consumption. A reduction in the population at the base of the demographic pyramid jeopardizes this model, diminishing both internal demand and productive capacity. In this context, migration flows emerge as a key tool to maintain demographic and economic balance. Migration brings new generations that can meet labor and consumption needs, especially in developed countries. However, it should be noted that many countries currently supplying migrant populations, such as Morocco, Romania, or several South American nations, are also experiencing a decline in fertility and may need to retain their inhabitants in the future. This highlights the need for a global perspective in managing migration.
In addition to promoting migration flows, policies to encourage higher birth rates must be implemented. Measures such as extended maternity and paternity leave, childcare subsidies, and flexible working hours could partially mitigate this issue. However, it is important to recognize that low fertility is a global phenomenon that is likely to persist. Therefore, it is necessary to rethink the global economic model to adapt it to a different demographic reality. An approach prioritizing sustainability and resource redistribution could be more suitable for a world with a stabilized or declining population.
In conclusion, declining fertility presents a major challenge for contemporary societies. Europe exemplifies this issue, which is already shared by other regions worldwide. A combination of proactive policies, responsible management of migration flows, and a reformulation of the economic model will be essential to address the challenges posed by this new demographic reality. Viewing degrowth as a viable strategy is not merely a theoretical option but a pragmatic necessity to ensure collective well-being in the coming decades.
